Reliability Assessment using Bayesian Criticality Analysis

Responsible KEG Investigator:
Professor Ian Nabney
Type of Project: Case Award

Funder: Rolls-Royce and EPSRC

Date Commissioned: 01/2007
Date Completed: 12/2009

Project Summary
The aim of the project is to provide new tools for design-risk analysis of complex systems allowing early design decisions to be informed by their reliability impact (and in certain cases, by implication, their safety impact). Additionally, maintenance and fault diagnosis could be based on a deep understanding of the system components and their interactions. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) will be used to represent entire engineering systems in a probabilistic way (latest generation gas turbines will be used for proof-of-concept) in order to analyse the interactions at both module and component level and perform a design-risk analysis. We shall investigate how uncertainty in probabilities can be represented, inferred with, and used to help designers assess the impact of component and design choices. The techniques will be validated using historical information (including service histories) from existing aeroengines.