Mr Magesh Nagarajan

Doctoral Student

Operations and Information Management Group

Thesis Title

An integrated modelling approach for large-scale evacuation planning of a city.

Research Description

Emergency management agency’s plan for large-scale evacuation of the city for various phases namely: dissemination of warning message, managing the evacuating traffic and accommodating the evacuees who need shelters. Organisations responsible for each of these support functions develop evacuation response plans. This thesis will investigate on using an integrated modelling platform to provide mass evacuation planning of a city for these three evacuation support functions. A) The dissemination of warning message during evacuation happens through ‘official channels’ like television, radio, sirens, telecommunication systems, etc, and also through ‘informal channels’ among the public through the existing social networks among friends, family and neighbours. The effectiveness of official warning channel depends on the time of the day and the effectiveness of informal warning channel depends on the evacuee behaviour. The dissemination of warning message has been modelled using agent-based modelling technique. B) On receiving the evacuation message and choosing to respond, the evacuees could choose various means of transport namely: cars, public transport and pedestrians. The behavioural choice of the evacuees, the existing transport infrastructure and the evacuation traffic management plans will collectively define the success of evacuation. This phase has been modelled using by combined “network modelling” with Agent-Based Modelling. C) The demand for emergency accommodation is a function of socio-economic factors. The shelters are identified in advance and need to be allocated on an optimum basis. This phase has been modelled using integer optimization approach.

A delay in the first phase will have cascading effect on the subsequent phases and hence an integrated platform will help the multi-agency emergency planners to support their preparedness. The thesis has adopted a case study approach to demonstrate the proposed integrated model that will help the Emergency managers to plan, test and exercise their evacuation plans in advance as a part of evacuation preparedness initiatives.


Prof Duncan Shaw


Journal Articles

  1. Magesh Nagarajan, Duncan Shaw, Pavel Albores, (2010) “Informal dissemination scenarios and the effectiveness of evacuation warning dissemination of households -- A Simulation study”, Procedia Engineering, Vol. 3, pp. 139-152, ISSN 1877-7058, DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2010.07.014.

  2. Mohan S and Magesh N (2004) “Dependability of Irrigation and hydropower production during drought“, Journal of Indian Water Resources Society, IWRS, Vol. 24, no.3, July 2004, pp 01-11.

Conference Publications

  1. Magesh Nagarajan, Duncan Shaw, Pavel Albores, (2010), “Public shelter allocation during mass evacuation: An Excel based tool”, International Conference on Emergency Preparedness (InterCEPt), 21st to 23rd September 2010, Birmingham UK.
  2. Magesh Nagarajan, Pavel Albores, Duncan Shaw (2010), “Planning for warning dissemination during mass evacuation using an agent-based model”, International Conference on Emergency Preparedness (InterCEPt), 21st to 23rd September 2010, Birmingham UK.
  3. Magesh Nagarajan, Pavel Albores, Duncan Shaw (2010), “A simulation model for testing transport plans to support large scale evacuation”, International Conference on Emergency Preparedness (InterCEPt), 21st to 23rd September 2010, Birmingham UK.
  4. Nagarajan, Magesh, Shaw, Duncan and Albores, Pavel (2009) “A simulation model for measuring the effectiveness of warning message dissemination”, First International Conference on Evacuation Modeling and Management, The Hague, The Netherlands. 23-25 September-2009.
  5. Magesh Nagarajan, Pavel Albores and Duncan Shaw (2009) “Simulation model to measure the effectiveness of evacuation warning message dissemination”, POMS, 20th Annual conference, Orlando, Florida USA, 1-May to 4-May-2009.
  6. Magesh N and Mohan S (2003), “Effect of uncertainty of sample BOD values on reaction rate prediction”, National Seminar on “Pollution Management Strategies and Environmental Protection”, Nirmala College for women, Coimbatore, India.
  7. Magesh N (2002)  “ A Linear Programming model for Waste load allocation in streams – A case study “, Proceedings of the National Conference on Water Resources and Ocean Engineering (HYDRO 2002), IIT Bombay, Dec. 16-17, 2002, pp. 416-419.

Student Level Technical Symposia 

  1. Magesh N (2002) "Development Fuzzy Logic Control for Manimuthar Reservoir “, AMPRECOM - 2002, on 13th Jan 2002, at Indian Institute of Technology – Roorkee – Consolation Prize
  2. Magesh N (2001) "Fuzzy logic control for Manimuthar Reservoir “, ADAGE - 2002, on September 2001, at Institute of Road Transport Technology – Erode-First Prize
  3. Magesh N (2000) "Civil Engineering applications in C-language (part – II) ”, SCANSY-2000, on 29th September 2000, at Shanmuga College of Engineering – Thanjavur
  4. Magesh N (2000) "Traffic Engineering - Signals of Highways (Signal Simulation Program in C Language)“, FOCALPS – ‘00, on 19th September 2000, at Periyar Maniammai College of Engineering Technology For College of Engineering - Thanjavur.
  5. Magesh N (2000) "Civil Engineering applications in C-language", BUILTEC-2000, on 18th August 2000, at Thiagarajar College of Engineering - Madurai - First Prize

Work Experience

Research Assistant, ERGO Project, Aston CRISIS Centre (http://www.ergo.aston.eu) [May-2008 to date]

Applications Developer, IBM Global Services [May-2005 to May 2007]

Teaching Experience 

  1. Tutor for UG course BN3324 - Simulation [2008-9, 2010-11], Aston Business School.
  2. Guest Lectures for PG course BNM743 – Databases (Introduction to SQL, Normalization principles and Data mining) [2008-9, 2009-10], Aston Business School.
  3. Teaching Assistant in PG Laboratory course – ‘Hydraulic engineering laboratory’ [2004] in EWRE division, Indian Institute of Technology Madras

Education History

  • FPM (Fellow Programme in Management) in Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, discontinued after one year (Jul 2007 to Apr 2008).

  • MS (by research)– Environmental Engineering, Dept of Civil Engineering,Indian Institute of Technology Madras, INDIA, 2002-2005.

  • B.Tech in Civil Engineering  – Pondicherry Engg College (1998-2002) [University Gold Medallist].

Research Interests

  • Evacuation Modelling
  • Simulation and Optimization applications to Business Management
  • Data Mining and Web Analytics using Enterprise level data.
  • Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS)
  • Discrete Event Simulation (DES)

Programming Skills

  • Certified in Oracle SQL programming (1z007)
  • NetLogo, MS-excel, Simul8, Oracle SQL, PL/SQL, MATLAB, C, Unix shell scripting, Java, and J2EE

Other Honours and Achievements 

  1. Bravo Award – The Best of IBM” in IBM India Limited, for exceptional contribution & performance for Cable Settlements Project, 2007
  2. Gold Medal for securing First in  B.Tech, Department of Civil Engineering, Pondicherry University
  3. Government of Pondicherry award for securing first in Pondicherry University Examinations held during 1998 – 2002
  4. Young Engineering Fellowship Programme, in Indian Institute of Science Bangalore, worked under the guidance of Prof. P. P. Mujumdar
  5. Summer Assistantship, in Indian Institute of technology Madras, worked under the guidance of Prof. S. Mohan
  6. Best Project awardfor the final year project work (B. Tech 2001 – 2002)
  7. Meritorious student awardfor the year 2002 in Pondicherry Engineering College.
  8. Pursued MS (by research) with HTRA scholarship (Half Time Teaching and Research Assistantship) of MHRD for GATE qualified students.
  9. Lakshmi memorial award and Merit certificate - for securing First in B.Tech  2nd, 3rd and 4th year
  10. Secured 100/100 in Mathematics Exam in Public exam and secured 2nd in high school.
  11. Secured 92.3 % in Oracle Certification – Introduction to SQL exam.
  12. Secured first in Pondicherry region during Southern India Science Fair (1992).


Student Member, The Operational Research Society of UK.

Student Member, American Society of Quality (ASQ).



Employable Graduates; Exploitable Research